Some believe that Facebook is now an integral part of our life. That it will only keep growing, and in a few years time it will be as ubiquous as email.
Those people are wrong. As more people use Facebook, it becomes less useful.
When you first sign up to Facebook, it's not that useful. You have to go out and make some friends. As you add friends, it becomes more useful and more interesting. Marginal utility derived, per user added, is increasing. It becomes addicting. But then it peaks. It peaks, and the trend reverses. The peak is different for each user, and depends largely on the kind of activities their friends engage in on the platform, but at some point the marginal utility per user added starts declining. Then it goes negative. It starts to get so noisy that you start wondering why you are checking it at all.
This problem is not uniqie to Facebook. This is what "killed" MySpace. And this is what is killing Twitter.
When I first started using Facebook I was still in school. Only people with access to a .edu email address could even request to join. It was a quiet platform with the occasional picture of drunken debauchery. You'd slowly add friends as more people came into the platform. I used it mainly for finding people in my classes and getting notes on days I skipped. At the time, there was an application built directly into the platform that let you enter your courses. Finding everyone in a specific class was incredibly simple. At some point this functionality was actually removed and then brought back later by a third party.
What's even more interesting is that those joining Facebook today have no concept of the kind of utility that Facebook was once able to provide. They have no frame of reference. They sign up and by the end of the week they could have 100+ friend requests. They assume that this is what Facebook is, and the way you use it is by saying as much stuff as you can. They are also going to be the first ones to move to a new platform that can provide them the same kind of benefits that Facebook originally provided.
The same thing is happening on Twitter right now. What started as an extremely useful communication tool, has become the noisiest broadcasting medium of all time. Everyone is scrambling around saying, "What's Twitter? Do I need to be on it? What's my Twitter strategy?" Do you need to be on it? No. No, you don't. Even more, there is a touch of hypocrisy in this post, since most people who read this will have found it through Twitter.
This problem with noise is what has me so interested in Google Wave. Direct messaging (email, IM, SMS) doesn't suffer from scale in the same way, and Google Wave functions more along the lines of email and instant messaging. The current model of Facebook, Twitter, et al. is one of broadcasting out everything, all the time, and hoping that the right people read it and respond. With individual "waves" you can create instances with only particular groups of people. You can fluidly add people and drop them. The network can be resized at any point, and one can create an entirely new network with the click of a button.
Help me Google Wave. You're my only hope.