Material wealth creation / destruction should surpass earlier computing cycles. The mobile Internet cycle, the 5th cycle in 50 years, is just starting. Winners in each cycle often create more market capitalization than in the last. New winners emerge, some incumbents survive – or thrive – while many past winners falter.
The mobile Internet is ramping faster than desktop Internet did, and we believe more users may connect to the Internet via mobile devices than desktop PCs within 5 years.
Five IP-based products / services are growing / converging and providing the underpinnings for dramatic growth in mobile Internet usage – 3G adoption + social networking + video + VoIP + impressive mobile devices.
Apple + Facebook platforms serving to raise the bar for how users connect / communicate – their respective ramps in user and developer engagement may be unprecedented.
Decade-plus Internet usage / monetization ramps for mobile Internet in Japan plus desktop Internet in developed markets provide roadmaps for global ramp and monetization.
Massive mobile data growth is driving transitions for carriers and equipment providers.
Emerging markets have material potential for mobile Internet user growth. Low penetration of fixed-line telephone and already vibrant mobile value-added services mean that for many EM users and SMEs, the Internet will be mobile.
I guess we've still got five years. Until then, most large companies will continue to pay for (and agencies will continue to produce) Flash-based web experiences that a limited number of people want spend time with; and never bother to run any kind of quantitatively sound analysis to find out how they actually performed. Oh well, such is life.
What worries me is that there is a shift underway from Flashy (pun intended) websites to flashy iPhone applications – again, that few people want to spend time with. You've got companies out there creating iPhone applications that don't need to exist, and others out there trying to create applications that run on every mobile operating system. Yelp, I'm looking at you.
At least there is a reason for the Yelp applications to exist, since not all mobile devices can access features like GPS through the browser (although both iPhone and Andorid-based devices can). But what I hate about Yelp is that the user experience isn't consistent across platforms. It's not even really well thought out. If you switch phones, you get an entirely new Yelp experience. And I don't blame them, because it's ridiculous to expect a small, venture-backed company to develop applications simultaneously across 5-different platforms and maintain a consistent feature set.
Personally, I reject the idea of native application development as a philosophy. That's not to say I think native applications shouldn't exist – they should. But they should only exist if they need to exist. If you need to access functions on a platform that can't be access through the browser then it makes sense. Otherwise, I subscribe to Google's philosophy on mobile: Focus on creating great web-based user experiences. Four of the six major smart-phone operating systems now render web pages with WebKit (BlackBerry OS and Windows Mobile being the exceptions). Shouldn't the focus be on developing and optimizing for WebKit? Instead of having to fight for space on the home screen of someone's device, and risk being deleted for a new application, you can develop a mobile web presence that users can come back to at any time; and more importantly – one which can be easily iterated on. If a native application is to exist, it should be only part of a mobile web strategy, not the entire thing.
Also, if you ever wanted to download a 659-slide powerpoint presentation on mobile from one of the largest global financing services companies, Morgan Stanely, now you can. Just head on over here. So next time you have a client that's resistant to the idea of creating a mobile presence, just forward them this deck. Remember to put, "LOLWUT" in the subject. :)
