I'm a full-time Flash developer and I'd love to get paid to make Flash sites for the iPad. I want that to make sense — but it doesn't. Flash on the iPad will not (and should not) happen — and the main reason, as I see it, is one that never gets talked about: current Flash sites could never be made to work well on any touchscreen device, and this cannot be solved by Apple, Adobe, or magical new hardware. That's not because of slow mobile performance, battery drain or crashes. It's because of the hover or mouseover problem. ... All that Apple and Adobe could ever do is make current Flash content visible. It would be seen, but very often would not work.
Having recently had the opportunity to actually play with Flash on and Android phone, I couldn't agree more. But it's not hover and mouse-over that's really the problem. That same problem exists with HTML and JavaScript too. The real problem is that Flash is a plug-in that needs to capture input to work properly. That means there's an extra 'tap' that has to happen just to let the browser know that you want to interact with the Flash embed and not the browser. So while double tapping might normally zoom in and out, now it just tells the browser to capture the touch input and then release it. How do you tell the device that you want your tap or pinch to interact with the browser window and not the Flash window, and vice versa?
The only way to bring the Flash plug-in to mobile devices is by creating an on-screen UI specifically for interacting with Flash embeds. And once you do that the user experience is so poor that it's just not worth the trouble.
I've said it before and I'll say it again, if Adobe actually wants to get Flash on the iPhone (or cares at all about the user experience on Android) it needs to open source the runtime and push towards getting Flash integrated directly with WebKit itself.